Amid a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by sluggish industrial production and investment activity, InCred Equities has released its high-conviction stock recommendations for July 2025. The firm has updated its model portfolio by introducing NTPC as a new largecap "add" and removing Petronet LNG, Birla Corporation, and Ultratech Cement from its recommendations.
InCred notes that India's macro data shows a weakening trend in industrial output, with IIP growth slowing to 1.2% in May 2025—its lowest in nine months. Q1FY26 also witnessed a sharp 70% quarter-on-quarter dip in new investment proposals. However, a silver lining has emerged in the form of above-normal monsoon rainfall in June 2025, with cumulative precipitation exceeding the long-period average by 8.9%. Early and widespread monsoon coverage has boosted kharif crop sowing by 11% YoY.
For July, InCred recommends largecaps like HDFC Bank, TCS, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, and Lupin. Midcap preferences include UPL, Concor, and Ajanta Pharma, while smallcaps such as Deepak Fertilisers, Thyrocare, and Globus Spirits are also on the radar. These picks reflect a cautious yet opportunistic investment strategy amid ongoing valuation concerns and policy uncertainties.
Against a backdrop of uneven macroeconomic signals and high market valuations, InCred Equities has released its "high-conviction ideas" for July 2025. In its updated recommendations, the firm added NTPC to its list while removing Petronet LNG, Birla Corporation, and Ultratech Cement.
The brokerage flagged concerns over a slowdown in India's economic activity. Industrial production growth (IIP) decelerated to 1.2% in May 2025, the lowest in nine months. In addition, new investment proposals fell sharply to ₹4 lakh crore in Q1FY26—a 70% drop from the previous quarter—though still up 38% YoY on a low base.
Despite these challenges, InCred highlighted a key positive in the form of robust monsoon performance. India received 8.9% above-normal rainfall in June, leading to the earliest country-wide coverage of the monsoon since 2020 and a sharp 11% YoY surge in kharif sowing.
The brokerage’s largecap "add" list includes HDFC Bank, TCS, Bajaj Finance, Maruti Suzuki, Axis Bank, NTPC, Bajaj Auto, Shriram Finance, and Lupin. Among midcaps, UPL, Concor, and Ajanta Pharma were favored. For smallcaps, the recommended names are Deepak Fertilisers, Clean Science and Technology, Ethos, Skipper, Thyrocare Technologies, Camlin Fine Sciences, TCPL Packaging, and Globus Spirits.
